Five Things You Really Might See At MacWorld 09

So we've all being doing a bit of prognosticating lately. I said you won't see a netbook soon, Hadley thinks you will, Chris S says we won't. Recently Bakari gave his wishlist for MWSF09, which did include a netbook. And Chris S also gave us his expectations for MWSF09.

Since I started writing this, one rather interesting bit of news has come to light: Steve Jobs won't be delivering the keynote at MWSF09. You can speculate if this is health or political, but the big clue will be in what gets announced. Steve always announces the big ones; it's what he lives for; shaking up the world. The three I'm listing below are big but not huge. There's no iPhones, Apple TVs or Intel Macs here. So I think they are the sorts of things - as they are all essentially variations on existing products - that Steve would be happy to acquiesce the launch of to Phil.

Like the supermodel who several years ago said she won't get out bed for less than $10,000 a day, well I suspect Steve won't get on a MacWorld stage for anything less than revolutionary.

Now, that out of the way, here are the five things I think are 50/50 or better chance of showing up at MacWorld San Francisco in January 2009.

iPhone nano

Unlike Chris S, I do think the iPhone nano is a real possibility. The market is there. The smartphone market is just a small part of the overall phone market. There are people who, for whatever reason, just will never want a smartphone. But they've probably already got an iPod and would be quite happy to have a phone with an iPod built in. I think Apple has the confidence, and now the experience, to release a product into that non-smartphone market. I dont' see it creating confusion anymore than the shuffle, nano, classic and touch do in the iPod market.

Talk of this has gained momentum lately with some rumors. It would make sense because if Apple is going to play in the phone market, it needs another option. Having a choice of two phones would allow Apple to update one every six months, thus each each once a year. This would keep Apple dynamic in the mobile phone market and give it both a smartphone and um... a less-smart phone. Could you really call it a "normal" phone? I think Apple would enjoy redefining the non-smartphone market, just as it did the smartphone market.

However, what features does Apple cut from the iPhone classic to make the nano? The most logical would be internet, i.e. email and web, as internet is the main attraction of the standard iPhone. (However, then Apple would have to include MMS.) GPS should go too. The only other possibility would be the camera, but cameras are pretty much de rigueur on phones now. Without internet, WiFi could go too.

The other challenge is whether to allow iPod apps on it, or iPhone apps. The latter would require developers to code for a smaller screen dimension, which could get messy. Maybe Apple could have no third party apps on it.

So, an iPhone without internet, Wifi and GPS. Essentially, an iPod nano with phone services. That seems nano enough. 

Chances: 50%

Mac mini

Another rumor gaining ground is an update of the Mac mini. MDN, I think it was, pointed out that the mini is consistently in the top 5 selling desktops on Amazon. Not bad for a machine that's way overdue for an overhaul.

This rumor has to come to fruition sooner or later. And if this is a quiet MacWorld product wiseas appears likely, a new mini should be a walk up start.

Chances: 90%

iWork online

As James rightly pointed out, Apple has been rather quiet on the desktop application software front for a while. iWork and iLife should both be due for upgrades, which we might see at MWSF09, but online is where the future is fast racing and Apple could very well give us a first taste of its own foray into online apps with all or part of iWork going online under the umbrella of MobileMe.

However, this might be too big for MacWorld and an announcement Apple would rather keep for its own specific launch, especially if these were iPhone compatible.

Chances: 50%

iWork and iLife updates

iWork and iLife haven't casued much excitement of recent years, so a refresh of these could be used as filler in an otherwise quiet MacWorld.

Chances: 70%

Snow Leopard

This one seems to be tracking well for a release early 2009. Provided there really are no exciting new features, it could also be filler at MacWorld.

Chances: 80%