One Day I Will Switch from Apple

I really like Apple’s products. I love the iPod. It rocks. I have three. I love Macs. They rock too. I have two (working on a third). The iPhone is amazing, iTV shows great promise, and just about every piece of software they make is wonderful. And in spite of all that, one day I see myself switching to Linux.

I realize that is a bold statement, so let me clarify my position. When I say “one day,” what I really mean is “one day, after Steve Jobs leaves Apple.” Because as much as I don’t want to admit it (and if you think I’m in denial, just imagine Apple’s stockholders), Apple is going to become a radically different company once Jobs leaves. And, sadly, it will change for the worse. Maybe it will be in five years or maybe Jobs will stay for another twenty, but one day he will have to leave. Maybe to tearful farewells or maybe in a pine box, but one way or another his tenure at Apple is drawing to a close.

In fact, I expect it will mirror the history of Disney after Walt Disney died. For those of you who don’t know, Steve Jobs is this generation’s version of Walt Disney. Disney was an amazing leader. He was a showman, an artist, a businessman, and someone who had an uncanny gift for knowing what people wanted even if they didn’t know themselves. Oh, and he had a knack for being ahead of his time. Sound like anyone we know?

But what happened after he died? Well, Disney the company became a lot more like all the other companies out there. They started putting their shareholders before their customers so they could make more money. After all, innovation is expensive and oftentimes the ones who lead the way end up failing miserably. And while leaders may thrive on risk, stockholders prefer steady earnings. And sure enough, ten years after Walt Disney died, the company he founded had gone from a leader to just another company trying to make as much money as possible regardless of the impact it had on their customers. Now, I’m not really criticizing Disney so much as explaining the reality of the situation. Every great company at one point or another was new and quick and innovative. But eventually their founders died and other people took over their businesses. People who don’t share the same dream. People whose only goal is to make lots of money. And the sad truth is that one day Apple will follow down that road.

Now, I’m not complaining about any company wanting to make money. I’m not an idealist who thinks that Apple behaves the way they do because they’re just a bunch of nice guys. They are out there to make a buck just like everyone else. However, they seem to care more about their customers than most other corporations out there. But you can be sure that will end once Jobs is out the door. Of course it won’t be an immediate shift, but the change will happen.

At first it will be small things like changing the price of a song on iTunes. At some point they will swing around to the notion of selling some songs at a discount while jacking up the price of others. Then they might offer a subscription service saddled with DRM. Why, you ask? Because it will bring additional sources of revenue, that’s why. And before you start emailing me, let me say that it will be a mistake, but one they will make because they won’t be able to see the bigger picture. They are seeing their profits go up for this quarter while ignoring the impact this will have on their business in the long run.

Next up I imagine they will begin to sell low end Macs. Why? Because there is money (though not a lot) to be made in that as-yet untapped segment of the market. At the time it will seem like a great idea because it will make profits go up! And what shareholder doesn’t want to see that? Who cares about the long term as long as we are making money today. Perhaps after that they will finally swing around to the notion of licensing OS X. Because all those other hardware makers out there will be willing to offer plenty to run OS X. Yeah! Here comes another revenue stream! And while they’re at it, might as well sell a couple of different versions of OS X. You know, a discount one for students, one for businesses, one for government, you get the idea. It just adds to the bottom line after all, and isn’t that a good thing?

Of course, sometime during this mad dash to make as much money as possible they might lose focus on their customers, but who has time for that when there’s so much money to be made? And so it will continue until one day people are going to look around and notice that this new Apple doesn’t really look much like the old Apple. People are going to start wondering where all the innovation went and why the company seems to be trying to live on past glories.

All of which brings me back to my original point of one day switching to Linux. I don’t really feel that Linux is a better choice than OS X, but that’s today. In twenty years, who knows? Maybe by then Ubuntu really will have taken over the world. I really don’t expect Microsoft to still be making operating systems in twenty years, but I suppose miracles can happen. Or maybe a new contender will enter the ring and startle us with their amazing new OS.

But what makes me so sad is the realization that right now, today, we are living in Apple’s prime. The next five years will probably be the best the company will ever do. And I’m sure they will be able to keep things going reasonably well for at least another five years after that. But it won’t last forever. My daughter is 6 months old and it saddens me to think that one day she might grow up thinking of Apple as “that company that used to be cool” but now is just hanging on. Doesn’t that make you sad too?