William's Profile

Hey, I just had a thought about the halo effect. In fact of the 10 million iPods sold as of Apple's fiscal Q1 05, 8.2 million of them were sold in the last calendar year 2004. while your reasoning that the iPod halo effect has not yet shown itself, i contest that we will see a major unseasonal upswing in fiscal Q4 (consumer back to school sales) and see another larger spike in the same quarter 2006, and 2007 as the sheer mumbers of iPods sold begins to cause change in the consumer mindset. the first round of potential upgraders will be buying for their kids. I may be off base here, but I believe that we could see, on the CPU side of Apple's business what happened with the iPod business in Q1-3 last year, where sales went from 733k to 860k to 1.06 million iPods sold when analysts were predicting a modest slowdown in sales due to "seasonal trends." it is my personal prediction that in fiscal Q2 apple sold more computers than during the holiday season despite problems with the powerbook line, and that the quarter is traditionally apple's slowest. my predictions for the next two quarters in numbers sold are 1.2million units for the just ended quarter, with 1.5 million+ in Q3 as the mac mini penetrates the budget market, and a jump to over 2 million total unit sales in Q4 as the iPod halo finally takes affect. I can't even begin to imagine how many computers apple will sell in Q1 2006, but lets just say it will be a butt-load. Mark my words people, Apple Computer is finally back and in a big way.